Road to the Cheltenham Festival 2026 – 1 week to go
months before the feature race, here is our first post of the year!
For those who haven’t followed Severn Sport during the run up to and the Festival itself, our coverage includes posts at 7, 3, 2 and 1 week to go markers, as well as a Tipster League during Festival week – where figures from football in Gloucestershire compete to be crowned our King Tipster.
In January, Severn Sport’s Ryan Butler was joined by Tipster League veteran, Damon Highet, and Slimbridge Co-Manager, Tom Deakin, for our first preview post, where the boys looked at their Best and Worst Priced Favourites and Longshots.
At the 3 weeks to go mark, the bookies are now “non-runner no bet” for the most part, so the boys looked at Two Horses and a Race to watch each.
At the 2 weeks to go mark, the trio were joined by the Fox, Michael Hedley-Ward to pick their antepost L15s for the festival.
This week, Butler takes a look at a key race on each day of the Festival and looks at how the market looks ahead of the four days.
As always, Severn Sport encourages everyone to bet responsibly and the prices below are taken from SkyBet at the time of writing, so are subject to change.
Tuesday 10 March – Unibet Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy (Grade 1) (GBB Race) – 16:00
Whilst I believe the best race of the Tuesday is going to be the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, the Champion Hurdle HAS to be the one to watch due to just how wide open it is.
State Man, injured. Sir Gino, injured. Constitution Hill, retired to the flat. The three potential biggest players nowhere to be seen this season.
Lossiemouth is being touted as going to try and defend her Mares’ Hurdle crown, although she may turn up in the Champion Hurdle – but then based on her two runs since Christmas, there are question marks over her credentials, which feels mental to even type.
Brighterdaysahead has come out of the two races vs Lossiemouth looking a much better prospect for this race, but having been beaten by Golden Ace in the 2024 Mares’ Hurdle and a disaster of a run in this race last year leave questions on her too.
Then with Lossiemouth expected to not feature in this, it leaves questions as to who the Willie Mullins candidate will be, with Anzadam, Ballyburn and Poniros all currently holding entries it is crazy to think it is the 100/1 winner of last year’s Triumph Hurdle in Poniros that could be the chief runner for the man who always produces the goods at this time of year.
Golden Ace is being overlooked for the most part, but she has won in three of her four runs at Cheltenham, so that proven form has to make her a contender.
The market leader is The New Lion after winning last year’s Turners Novices’ Hurdle, but after falling at Newcastle in November there again are question marks about him and even though he bounced back to win the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, the fact Sir Gino pulled up has seen more questions asked of him as he “hasn’t beat anything special.”
Wide open race that could even see Joe Tizzard’s Alexi or Henry De Bromhead’s Workahead cause an upset based on the events of 12 months ago.
Butler’s tip – Golden Ace each-way (6/1)
Wednesday 11 March – BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) – 16:00
You’ll notice that this post is slightly later than the 7-day marker and I am so glad this post is later as the race to watch on Wednesday is now the Champion Chase in much the same fashion as the Champion Hurdle – the talking points of who is not appearing.
Last year’s winner Marine Nationale has been ruled out by Barry Connell due to a sore neck and with the 7 day declarations being made in the next couple of days for the week, there are plenty of questions to be asked.
Majborough leads the market after Marine’s announcement and is now odds on. Last year only two of the odds on favourites won across the whole week, so there isn’t any value there for me.
Il Etait Temps and L’eau Du Sud have never won at the festival before, whilst L’eau Du Sud impressed in victory against Jonbon in November.
That win has seen Jonbon’s potential target change towards the Ryanair, however with Marine now out, JP McManus may decide to revert Jonbon back to this in order to secure the top two in the market on the day – especially with Fact to File looking likely to go back to defend his Ryanair crown.
Outside of that the market is a bit of a minefield, with Quilixios, Irish Panther and Thistle Ask next in the betting and only the former not seen since falling in last year’s race.
Solness, Only By Night, JPR One, Calico and Libberty Hunter all have sketchy form at Cheltenham whilst Captain Guinness, who won the 2024 renewal of this race is currently 40/1 in the market after being winless since.
Not expecting a huge field, but wouldn’t put it past the favourite not winning the Champion Chase yet again.
Butler’s tip – Jonbon each-way (10/1)
Thursday 12 March – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1) (GBB Race) – 15:20
Another race that is wide open for me. Teahupoo is the market leader and rightly so – having won his three races since last year’s race, where he was beaten by Bob Olinger, who has four wins from four appearances at Cheltenham.
Between the two in the market is the hotly fancied Honesty Policy who after winning three times at the start of 2025, has had two promising runs when finishing 2nd and 3rd at Punchestown and Ascot.
Kabral Du Mathan for Dan Skelton and Ma Shantou are interesting propositions, with the latter coming into some fine form and tuning by winning twice at Cheltenham in January – seeing the price slashed into 6/1.
Impose Toi was runner up to Ma Shantou at the end of January and feels like a big price at 10s when he won his three previous races. He hasn’t been outside the top two in his three appearances at Cheltenham.
Ballyburn and Wodhooh both hold entries at 10s and 12s, but Wodhooh is definitely going to the Mares’ Hurdle, whilst Ballyburn holds entries for three or races at this point.
Hewick is of interest at 16s, but hasn’t been seen at Cheltenham since falling int he 2023 Gold Cup, but after a failed attempt in the Grand National last year, could feature in this.
Home By The Lee has only placed in one of his four Cheltenham Festival appearances, so even at 25/1 feels a bit too far away from the top six in the betting.
Butler’s tip – Impose Toi each-way (10/1)
Friday 13 March- Boodles Gold Cup Chase (Grade 1) (GBB Race) – 16:00
The featured race of the whole week rounds off a theme of another very wide open race at this point.
Fact To File is still the favourite in the betting, despite the likely outcome is he will go to the Ryanair Chase on the Thursday, but he could still be supplemented into the Gold Cup after an impressive win at Leopardstown in February.
Jango Baie was a good winner of the last season’s Arkle, but was pipped by The Jukebox Man in the King George.
Both will be entitled to stake a claim for the Gold Cup after good seasons and are naturally alongside a Gaelic Warrior that you can never predict.
Haiti Couleurs is aiming for the Grand National in April as well as the Gold Cup, so this will be a real test of where the Rebecca Curtis runner is in terms of against grade one company.
Two time winner Galopin Des Champs and last season’s winner Inothewayurthinkin will be much shorter on the day because of their proven pedigree in this race, but right now are at interesting prices.
Grey Dawning and Spillanes Tower are next in the betting, despite the fact both have produced better runs away from Cheltenham than they have at Prestbury Park, whilst another of the runners using the Gold Cup to test their Grand National credentials in I am Maximus, Nick Rockett and Grangeclare West all run their races in races like this.
Envoi Allen was declared for this by Henry De Bromhead a couple of months ago in what will be his final race before retirement. I had a go at 66.1 and he is now into 33s, sometimes the romance of horse racing can produce a final bit of magic…
Butler’s tip – Haiti Couleurs each-way (7/1)
Check back on Monday 10 March, where we will be launching the 2026 Tipster League, looking at the teams amd their antepost tips.
